March 30, 2008 by Rob.

I’ve been floating an idea with my friends (and mother-in-law) that has passed the sniff test for posting here.  I propose that we connect the costs of the war in Iraq directly with the price of gas.  This is logical because (at least some of) the need for the war is to protect crude oil supplies.  This is not a new tax because our taxes are currently financing the war - it is simply a different path for our tax dollars to flow from our paychecks into the military complex.

My specific proposal is that American should have 1% of the war cost paid by increasing the gas tax for 1 month.  After that it should increase by 1% each month.  This relatively a small ration but highly symbolic amount that directly connects the American people with the currently hidden true costs of the war.

Disclaimer: It is true that I don’t pay gas taxes on my electric car miles.  Sadly, >70% of my families miles are still powered by hydrocarbons.

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March 30, 2008 by Rob.

Reminiscing about the Space Shuttle got me thinking of just how far past the “space age” we’ve gotten.  I’ve generally considered us to be in the “silicon age” and have greatly enjoyed the connectedness, abundance resources, wealth, and productivity that computers have created for us.

I believe that we’re now entering a new age - the age of constraints.  In the age of constraints, the driving force behind our life decisions will be how our choices fit within our constrained resources.  In the silicon age, the primary constraint was time, but today those resources are physical.  We’ve reached limits on how much energy, oil, water, metal, corn, et cetera can be cheaply applied to create wealth.

It may be inconvenient compared to our current lifestyle, but this new age will reward the innovative.  We are so wasteful today that there is great wealth to be made in replacing efficiency for waste.  For example, tremendous fortunes will be made from ecosystems around LED lighting.  Some entrepreneur will profit every time a morsel of efficiency is wrung from converting egregiously wasteful space age products into sleekly efficient AoC artifacts.

Note: I’m working on a catchier name…I’m just a pundit in training.

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March 27, 2008 by Rob.

I had an interesting geopolitical lunch conversation and someone suggested that people during the 70s bought small cars to avoid the gas lines not because of the price.  The observation immediately rang true to me.

My memory of the 70s gas crisis was of watching my parents wait in long lines and search for open stations.  People install ed locks on their gas caps to keep people from stealing their hard won gas.  It got so bad that for a while, you could only buy gas on specific days of the week - it was illegal to pump gas on your off day!

The major difference between today’s high gas prices and the last peak is that there is still plenty of supply.  It’s painful to pay more at the pump, but it’s fatal when your Hummer is stranded because you can’t fill it until next Wednesday.

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March 25, 2008 by Rob.

The taxes would go into effect only as prices fall.  That would keep the price “artificially” higher and discourage consumers from waiting out the peak.  The idea is that if you KNOW that prices will stay high then you’ll buy that economical car and move back in towards the city.

NOTE: I heard this on NPR, but can’t find the reference.  It was commentary about missed opportunities from past economic problems.  In this case, it hind sight from the 70s oil crisis.

Also, this is not NPR - it’s commentary about NPR commentary.  Basically talking about fuel prices needing to be $7/gallon before consumers change their car buying habits.

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March 5, 2008 by Rob.

With oil at record highs and gas approaching $4, I was curious if climbing prices offset demand.  Based on my analysis, higher prices do NOT reduce our economy’s appetite for fuel.

I  found a very crisp chart that shows a 90 year trend of (inflation adjusted) gas prices.  It shows that prices have indeed recently spiked and that they are still not at record levels.

The I dug up a 25 year history of US oil consumption  and overlaid the graphs.   Sorry - I did not keep the graphs for your review.  The consumption graph is very close to a straight line with a consistent upward trend.  I was not able to visually correlate increases in price to decreases in demand.  Considering the recent spike, I had hoped expected to see noticeable decrease.

This is NOT normal economic behavior and leads me to conclude that either:

• we will tolerate more expensive gas because it’s been (artificially?)  under priced as per the cart above, or
• there are forces at play that prevent us from changing our buying behavior as prices rise

Perhaps, fuel prices are making a more drastic contribution our recent slow down that the “stagflation” data suggests.

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